After a dearth of economic data in Canada this week, next brings a deluge.

On Monday, the leading indicator and manufacturing shipments data is out. As well, Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge is speaking about Canada’s Economic and Financial Welfare.

Tuesday brings the merchandise trade balance numbers. On Wednesday we get a breather. Thursday hosts the Consumer Price Index and wholesale trade numbers. The week closes with retail trade numbers.

CIBC World Markets says that September manufacturing and exports will both suffer from the softening in U.S. demand, and retail sales will include poor results for autos and department stores. “Our expectations for all three figures are well below consensus, and would help cement expectations that the Bank of Canada is nowhere near carrying out its threatened rate hikes.”

On the inflation front, CIBC says, “The 12-month CPI will continue on an upward track owing to the same base-period effect noted for the U.S., despite what we expect will be a minimal monthly advance. But core prices will get a roughly half-point break in the months ahead as a move to re-regulate consumer electricity prices in Ontario, and grant a rebate for earlier hikes, is reflected in the national total.”

BMO Nesbitt Burns says, “The much-anticipated upward lurch in Canadian headline inflation readings will begin to unfold in earnest with the October CPI report.” And, it notes, “Look for another sub-par reading from Canadian retail sales in September. And a small slippage in auto output and a drop in U.S. activity will constrain manufacturing shipments and merchandise exports in September. We look for the trade surplus to narrow further to below $4 billion for only the second time this year.”

Things are more sedate in the U.S. The CPI is out on Tuesday, along with the trade balance numbers and a speech by Federal Reserve Board chairman, Alan Greenspan. Housing starts are announced on Wednesday. Thursday sees the release of their leading indicator.

CIBC says that U.S. consumer inflation is set to head higher in October, as energy prices push the monthly gain, and the year-over-year rate jumps as prices get compared to the unusual lows after 9-11. “But underlying monthly price momentum remains soft, and the 12-month CPI will head lower again next year as we get past this temporary base-period distortion.” In the trade numbers, CIBC expects to see a deficit widening in line with what was already assumed in the quarterly data.

Nesbitt says, “Markets will turn their attention to the upcoming data with renewed vigour this week, now that the direction of the economy is back in play as an important theme. Core CPI is expected to rise 0.2%, and anything worse would set off alarms in light of a string of surprisingly bad inflation reports. Our guess is that the economy is turning for the better at this point.”

The trickle of earnings reports will also continue next week, with Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. reporting on Tuesday, along with George Weston Ltd., Penn West Petroleum, Royal Group Technologies, and the big one, Royal Bank. PrimeWest Energy Trust reports on Thursday, followed by Exco Technologies on Friday.