Economic growth slowed around the United States in the last six weeks, while price pressures for the most part remained in check, according to a report released today by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The “beige book” report may give the Fed an added reason to stop raising interest rates soon, though not necessarily at its August 8 meeting.
Reports from all 12 Fed districts “generally indicated continued economic growth during June through mid-July, with numerous individual reports pointing to evidence that the pace of growth has slowed.”
Six districts “highlighted a decline in the overall rate of economic growth.”
As for inflation, “increases in wages and in prices of final goods and services remained modest on net” but “scattered reports … indicated an increase in manufacturers’ and retailers’ ability to pass” higher energy costs “on to final prices.”
On balance, the latest beige book paints a benign picture. Consumer spending appeared to ease throughout the country, with growing signs that consumers are tightening their belts. The New York district reported “attendance at State parks has been buoyed by people vacationing closer to home.” But strong manufacturing activity suggested business spending and exports may be picking up the slack. Manufacturing showed “significant gains across most districts”. One contact in the Chicago district called commercial lending activity “crazy competitive.”
While wage pressures were in general muted, the beige book found evidence of the growing gap between the highest and lowest paid workers that has become a growing political issue. One contact in the Boston district said “people are seeing low- to mid-single digit [wage] increases on average, but their ‘stars,’ who have an increasing number of outside offers, are asking for — and getting — low-double digit raises.” Meanwhile a food retailer in the Dallas district “noted increased sales which he attributes to lower income customers cooking at home instead of eating at restaurants.”
On prices, the Atlanta district “noted rising prices charged by various service providers” but in the Dallas district, “weaker demand of late reduced firms’ ability to raise prices in some industries.” Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke recently said he expects moderating growth to push inflation down in the coming 18 months.