A solid lineup of economic data and the continuing flow of earnings reports should keep traders hopping this week.

In Canada, the two most important data releases this week come on Tuesday and Friday when February retail sales and February GDP figures are released.

Auto sales, housing starts and home sales all rose in February and point to a gain of about 1.1% in retail sales, RBC says. “Stripping out the auto component to get a better gauge of broader underlying sales points to a slightly more modest gain of roughly 0.8%. The lift in retail sales combined with favourable trade numbers and manufacturing shipments suggest that Canadian real GDP rose roughly 0.4% in February.”

CIBC World Markets says that retail trade will be a mixed bag, with a solid headline number but perhaps a disappointment on the non-auto component. As for GDP, CIBC admits that it’s more or less guessing because the retail and wholesale reports would typically be in hand already. “For now, we’re calling for a 0.3% rise that doesn’t do much for a quarter that started with a negative sign on the first month. Indeed, it’s time for the Canadian bond market to pay a bit more attention to the Canadian data, which haven’t had nearly the vigor of reports stateside.”

“After starting the year with a 0.1% stumble in January, real GDP is expected to rebound with purpose in February,” BMO Nesbitt Burns says. “GDP probably rose by a solid 0.4% in February. Given that most other preliminary indicators are positive for March as well, with the glaring exception of employment, GDP growth for all of Q1 appears on track for a moderate gain of 2.5%-to-3.0%. This would be well south of the expected U.S. pace of around 4.5% for the quarter, and will also be below the Q4 pace in Canada of 3.8%.”

Also, the Business Conditions Index will be released on Thursday. “With U.S. manufacturing starting to blaze and the Canadian dollar backing off its highs, Canadian industry is expected to report generally more upbeat results for Q2.”

South of the border

In the U.S., RBC says the release of March new homes sales on Monday opens up a busy week on the U.S. data calendar. “Consumer confidence, first-quarter GDP and personal income and spending data are slated to come out later in the week,” it notes.

CIBC says that GDP is the highlight. “A steady stream of consensus-topping and upwardly-revised data has pushed our growth forecast all the way to 5.2%,” it says. “The upside surprise could come in the Conference Board consumer confidence number, where the consensus always seems to understate the potential month-to-month swings.”

Nesbitt expects GDP growth for Q1 to come in closer to 4.5%, lifting year-over-year performance to 5%, which is the fastest such pace since 1984 Q4. “This year is shaping up to be the strongest U.S. economy is 20 years! What’s that sound you hear? It’s the creaking of slack being taken in quickly.”

Corporate earnings

“Although corporate earnings releases peaked last week, we’ll still get another bombardment of reports next week, with about 27% of S&P 500 companies scheduled to report Q1 results. By the end of next week, roughly 63% of S&P 500 companies would have reported, giving us a good indication of how Q1 earnings fared,” Nesbitt says.

“Six Dow companies are expected to report, bringing the total to 26. EI Du Pont, McDonald’s and Verizon kick things off Tuesday morning. Boeing reports on Wednesday, followed by Exxon Mobil on Thursday, and on Friday, we get results from Procter & Gamble.”

In Canada, the earnings schedule is heavy again, too. Canadian Oil Sands Trust reports on Monday, along with The Consumers’ Waterheater Income Fund, Fording Canadian Coal Trust, IPSCO Inc., Manulife Financial, Noranda Inc., Placer Dome Inc., Russel Metals Inc. and Teck Cominco.

On Tuesday, Agrium Inc., Canadian Pacific Railway, Calpine Natural Gas Trust, Fairmont Hotels & Resorts Inc., Flextronics International Ltd., Petro-Canada, PrimeWest Energy Trust, QLT Inc., The Thomson Corporation, West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. and TSX Group Inc. are all on the schedule.

Agnico-Eagle Mines leads off on Wednesday, joined by Bowater, Brookfield Properties, Dofasco Inc., Dorel Industries Inc., EnCana, Fortis Inc., Finning International Inc., Gerdau Ameristeel, Phelps Dodge Corp., TransCanada Power, TVA Group Inc., Wescast Industries Inc., WestJet Airlines and Exco Technologies.