(July 10 – 10:20 ET) – After a couple of quiet weeks there’s a pretty heavy schedule of economic releases this week, with most economists looking for further confirmation of a soft landing in the United States and Canada.
Monday’s releases are centered in Japan and Europe. On Tuesday U.S. Wholesale Inventories are reported and Fed chair Alan Greenspan speaks on Structural Change in the New Economy. In Canada, housing starts are due Tuesday as well. On Wednesday Greenspan speaks again, this time on Global Challenges. On Thursday in the U.S. import prices and jobless claims are announced.
Thursday also brings Canada’s big releases of the week, the Consumer Price Index. Economists at CIBC World Markets expect to see big energy headline numbers, muted by soft core numbers. Economists at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. note, “The 2.8% overall CPI rate in June will include only a 1.4% yearly rise in core prices, the guidepost most closely watched by the Bank of Canada. That still lags U.S. inflation by about one percentage point, leaving no reason for the Bank to close the gap between U.S. and Canadian interest rates any time soon.”
On Friday the Americans get their big release of the week, the Producer Price Index, joined by retail sales, and capacity utilization. Economists expect strong PPI numbers thanks to energy prices, however core expectations are just 0.1%. CIBC is also expecting soft retail sales results. BMO Nesbitt says, “In the U.S., financial markets are now convinced the economy has slowed, and there won’t be anything to change that impression in the week ahead.”
-IE Staff