Newfoundland and Alberta, two energy-intensive provinces, will lead the country in economic growth this year, according to a new provincial forecast from CIBC World Markets economists.

CIBC says with a shaky recovery in the U.S. market expected to cap near-term growth in Central Canada, the country’s energy-intensive provinces look to run at the front of the growth pack in 2003.

“Tentative demand south of the border, coupled with surging energy prices, has left resources trumping factories when it comes to 2003 growth,” said Warren Lovely, senior economist at CIBC World Markets.

No province will grow faster than Newfoundland & Labrador, where a 4.6% real GDP advance would represent an impressive encore to 2002’s extraordinary 7.5% gain. A province-leading 3.8% burst is also expected for that province in 2004, which is making substantial progress in closing its traditional production gap with the rest of the country. Rebounding investment in conventional oil & gas should see growth in another energy heavyweight, Alberta, vault ahead. Matching 3.6% real GDP gains would leave Alberta running in second place both this year and next.

Canada’s manufacturing heartland in Ontario and Quebec enjoyed a stellar year in 2002, but tamer growth looks in store this year. In both provinces, however, last year’s strong job creation record looks to keep domestic demand on a very healthy track.