By James Langton
(September 18 – 17:30 ET) – After last week’s heavy slate of economic data, this week will be a little slower. Instead, earnings warnings and oil prices will take center stage.
Energy inventory announcements should continue to be key in light of world-wide concern over oil prices. RBC Dominion Securities says it wouldn’t be surprised to see per barrel prices pop to the US$40 to US$50-range before settling into a longer range equilibrium around US$25.
Apart from the volatile energy and currency markets, the economic scene should be muted. Today, Fed chairman Alan Greenspan will speak at the annual meeting of the American Bankers Association. Greenspan’s speech may well be the biggest news of the week, but no one is expecting any rate action during the election anyway.
On Tuesday, U.S. housing start and Canadian manufacturing shipment numbers will be released.
Wednesday is trade day with the U.S. reporting its international trade balance and the Beige Book, while Canadian merchandise trade and wholesale trade reports coming out. The Beige Book numbers should confirm economic slowing according to CIBC World Markets. BMO concurs, suggesting the report will moderate growth and continued tight labour markets.
On Thursday, Greenspan is speaking on the economic importance of math-science education. This will be followed by the Philadelphia Fed Survey. In Canada, retail sales numbers will be released.
Friday will be data-free, but the G7 Finance Ministers meeting next weekend, so there’ll be some pre-meeting spin.
The earnings slate isn’t that heavy next week either, but it is earnings warning season, so anyone could reveal a surprise. A few brokerage firms are reporting — Goldman Sachs on Tuesday, Lehman Brothers on Wednesday, and Morgan Stanley on Thursday. First Call expects their results to be strong, heralding even better results later from Merrill Lynch, DLJ, PaineWebber, and JP Morgan.
-IE Staff