The U.S. Conference Board sees signals that the recession will soon be over in the United States.

The Conference Board reports that the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose by 1.2% in December, following a revised 0.8% gain in November, and a narrow 0.1% increase in October. This is the largest increase in the index since 1996.

“The strong signal from the indicators means that the recession could be over soon,” says Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein. “Three successive monthly increases, each larger than the one before, bring the level of the leading series above the pre-recession peak. The November and December increases are the largest two-month gain since December 1992. There are three essential factors in the reemergence of economic momentum: successive cuts in short-term interest rates and strong growth in money supply continue to reflect an aggressively expansive monetary policy. Falling energy prices have the same impact as a tax cut. Economic demand was stimulated by steep retail discounting.”

The Conference Board also reports that the Coincident Index rose 0.1% in December, after a 0.3% decline in November. The lagging index fell 0.1% in December, after a revised 0.3% decline in November and a 1.1% fall in October. “The coincident index’s gain this month is the first in five months. This, coupled with a robust leading index, indicates that the economy, barring any unexpected shock, is gathering momentum.”