(March 19 – 17:30 ET) – Elliott & Page is reminding investors that that the best buying opportunities often present themselves during periods of negative earnings and declining stock prices.

“The U.S. market is down 25% since its peak a year ago. Given that the market is already down this much, what is the likelihood that the market will keep falling over the next year?” That’s the question Mark Schmeer, vice president and managing director, equities, Elliott & Page Asset Management and his team set about trying to answer.

Schmeer serves as co-manager of the Elliott & Page U.S. Mid-Cap Fund and the Elliott & Page Global Momentum Fund. He has over 20 years investment management experience and holds an MA in Economics as well as the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.

After examining market movements within an historic context, Schmeer and Elliott & Page’s equity team offer a “reality check” to current investor sentiment.

“The market has recorded a return of minus 25% or worse over a 24-month period during only one time frame in the past 40 years. The market was down as much as 38% for the two years from late 1972 through late 1974. Just one percent of the time in the post-war era has the market fallen more than 25% over a two-year period,” says Schmeer.

But Schmeer and his team are questioning the likelihood is that we are going to repeat the 1974 stock market debacle, the worst 24-month stock market return of the post-war era. “During the period 1972-74, short term interest rates went from 3.2% to 9%; long rates went from 5.8% to 8.6%; economic growth went from +9.8% in the first quarter of 1973 to -9.0% two years later. The Fed didn’t help as the Fed Funds rate went from 3.3% to 12.9% and inflation went from 5% to 12%. And if all that wasn’t enough, the politics of the country was a mess as the President Nixon was forced to resign,” note Schmeer.

Today’s environment is quite the opposite argues Schmeer. Interest rates haven’t increased at all, and the U.S. Federal Reserve Board is cutting rates, not raising them. “GDP growth has fallen sharply from about 8% at its quarterly peak to an estimated 0% this quarter, but I for one do not expect -9% growth in any quarter anytime soon. Inflation looks great at just 1.9% in the latest quarter,” says Schmeer.