Economists are split on how hard the big blackout of 2003 will affect the U.S. and Canadian economies.

“The hit could be fairly large in the August numbers and even curtail what was shaping up as a very strong Q3 GDP report,” says BMO Nesbitt Burns.

Meanwhile, RBC Financial says that it is only likely to have a modest impact on the U.S. and Canadian economies. It notes that financial markets have been orderly, “once jitters arising out of fears that the power outage was the result of a terrorist act subsided”. And, oil markets responded by pushing up the prices of crude.

“Bonds caught a brief flight-to-safety bid in the immediate aftermath of the lights going out on Thursday afternoon. However, selling began anew as officials rushed to claim that it was not an act of terrorism,” Nesbitt reports. “As the dust settled, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 20 bps on the week to 4.5%.”

RBC insists that any losses due to the blackout will likely be largely recovered as deferred spending. “Most suspended economic activity will be recouped in the coming days as consumers and businesses increase consumption and production over average levels to make-up for the temporary freeze on economic activity,” it says. “To give some perspective, the blackout should amount to no more than a rounding error on real annual GDP growth this year assuming power is fully restored shortly.”

“The costs to the economy will be minimal, temporary and amount to less than one full day of lost output, mimicking costs caused by a bad winter storm,” it concludes.