(December 4 – 07:20 ET) – Election agony in the United States and earnings reports will be the wildcards the week. The Bank of Canada will step into the spotlight, too.

On Monday afternoon the Gordon Thiessen, governor of Canada’s central bank, speaks to the Montreal Board of Trade. In the U.S., new home sales are announced.

The Bank of Canada will step out of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s shadow, on Tuesday, with its first scheduled rate announcement. No move is expected from the bank, although there are whispers of a possible tightening move.

The heavy economic slowdown, evident in the U.S., is not showing up in Canada, yet. The weak Canadian dollar is prompting some economists to muse that a rate hike is possible. Ultimately, most analysts assume the central bank will follow the safe road and stand pat for fear that the U.S. slowdown will spread.

“The recent recovery in the Canadian dollar and growing evidence of a meltdown in U.S. demand has sufficiently doused any talk of bank tightening,” says BMO Nesbitt Burns. “Nonetheless, given a strong growth backdrop and risks of higher core inflation ahead, the bank could signal that a Fed-matching rate-cut isn’t likely in the near-term.”

The focus then falls to the policy statement. “While it will cite upside risks to prices, with core inflation having only edged up to 1.5%, the bank will ignore the still-weak C$ and opt to leave rates unchanged,” says CIBC World Markets. TD Bank expects a balanced policy statement.

On Wednesday, building permit numbers will be announced. In the U.S., productivity numbers and the Fed’s Beige Book will be released. BMO Nesbitt says the Beige Book “will likely paint a much darker picture of economic prospects. Still, evidence showing labour markets have eased sufficiently to allay Fed concerns about inflation pressures has not yet clearly emerged. So, it will be interesting to see if the Beige Book de-emphasizes the labour markets and elevates dis-inflation pressures arising from the economic slowdown.”

Thursday will bring Canadian capacity utilization numbers.

Friday will be the big day in the U.S. with its jobs report on the docket. CIBC says the report should confirm the soft landing scenario.

On the earnings front there aren’t a great deal of reports scheduled, but that also leaves room for negative pre-announcements. The speculation is starting already. First Call research director Chuck Hill says, “The biggest events of the week may be the analyst meetings for Cisco and Hewlett-Packard.”

On Monday, JD Edwards will report, as will Com Dev. Tuesday will bring earnings reports from Comverse Technology, HJ Heinz, Kroger, and Angiotech. Wednesday brings earnings reports from Bank of Nova Scotia, along with Litton Industries, Toro. The HP meeting is set for Wednesday. On Thursday, CIBC, National Semiconductor, Ciena, Hudon’s Bay and Canadian Western Bank are due to report. Friday will be characteristically quiet, with only Costco on the slate.