BCA Research says that it expects the Dow Jones Industrial Average to fluctuate around the 10,000 mark for many years yet.

The Montreal-based research firm says in a new report that it noted in a report in March 1999, as the index was first approaching 10,000, the historical pattern of the DJIA stalling at key levels for extended periods. “This level has been a barrier this decade, and a broad trading range around the 10,000 level should persist for many years,” it predicts.

“We are cyclically bearish on U.S. equities, and the Dow should drop below 10,000 before a Fed rate pause and lower bond yields provides relief,” it explains. “The longer-term outlook remains uninspiring, because stocks are not cheap, and the post-1981 era of plunging interest rates and rising P/E ratios is mature.”

“Equity investors must play the cycles in order to generate decent returns, and our current advice is to stand aside,” it concludes.

The Dow closed Thursday at 10070.37