After three months of successive declines, Canadian commodity prices posted a modest increase in April, according to TD Bank economists. But don’t expect that trend to continue.

The TD Commodity Price Index rose by 2% last month. “The increase largely reflected a surge in lumber prices,” says Craig Alexander, senior economist at TD Bank. Hogs, nickel, newsprint, crude oil and flaxseed also rose, but the increases were quite modest.

Lumber prices jumped by 20% on average in April, reflecting a seasonal pickup in demand and price hikes by Canadian producers ahead of a much-anticipated imposition of a U.S. import duty on softwood lumber in the coming months. “The softwood dispute will remain in the spotlight in the coming months, with lumber prices likely to twist and turn with developments,” notes Alexander.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was largely unchanged in April, as concerns that slowing world economic growth would depress oil demand were offset by fears of a potential gasoline shortage in the United States.

“In the near-term, refineries will ramp up production and inventories will gradually rise, but supply will remain tight, limiting any retreat in gasoline prices,” says Alexander. Although natural gas prices dipped slightly in April, the outcome will be of little comfort to consumers, as prices remained more than 70% higher than year-ago levels.

Base metals, precious metals, and agricultural prices all slipped lower last month. “The rise in Canadian commodity prices is unlikely to be sustained,” says Alexander. “The ongoing U.S. economic slowdown and weakening demand in Europe and Asia spell lower commodity prices in the coming months.”