The Composite Leading Indicator for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development fell 0.8 of a point in October 2001, although Canada continues to signal growth, along with France and Japan.

The CLI fell to 110.6 from 111.4 in September. At the same time the six-month rate of change has deteriorated for three consecutive months. The OECD CLI is designed to provide early signals of turning points between expansions and slowdowns of economic activity. The OECD uses the six-month rate of change of the CLI as its preferred indicator to possible turning points. In practice, peaks in GDP have been found about nine months after the signals of peaks had been detected in the six-month rate of change.

The CLI for the U.S. decreased by 1.6 points in October. The U.S. six-month rate of change has fallen for four consecutive months. The CLI for the Euro area decreased by 0.8 of a point in October. The area’s six-month rate of change has deteriorated for three consecutive months. In the UK, the CLI decreased by 0.6 of a point in October and its six-month rate of change has deteriorated for the past four months.

Canada bucked the trend, with its CLI increasing by 0.2 of a point and its six-month rate of change improving in October. The CLI for Japan increased by 0.2 of a point in the month. The six-month rate of change for that country improved for the first time since November 2000.