(July 7) – TD Economists say that the provinces will enjoy strong growth in 2000 led by the mining and high-technology sectors. That’s according to the latest issue of the TD Quarterly Provincial Forecast.
Economic growth in Ontario is forecast to reach 5.0% in 2000, bolstered by the high tech sector. “In Ontario, the automotive industry continues to be the cornerstone of the potent economic performance witnessed to date, but the provincial expansion is also receiving considerable support from ‘new economy’ industries,” says Derek Burleton, senior economist at TD.
Ontario is set to displace Michigan as the automotive capital of North America. Both the Ottawa and Kitchener-Waterloo regions are feeding a boom in high-tech. However, Ontario also remains most vulnerable to a sharper-than-expected slowdown in U.S. economic growth. The progress of tax cuts should help cushion the blow, says TD.
“In the prairie provinces, Alberta is poised to turn in a stellar performance over the next few years, fuelled by booming activity in the oilpatch, while the economies of Saskatchewan and Manitoba will benefit from stronger global demand and rising prices for their key commodity exports,” says Burleton. TD predicts that economic momentum will shift westward in 2001-2002.
B.C. continues to recover from the Asian financial crisis of 1998. Economic growth in B.C. is expected to reach 3.3% by 2002, led by the resource sector. Increased consumer spending and tourism should boost service sector too.
Heading east to the Atlantic provinces, TD sees record growth in Newfoundland of 4.5%-5.5% through 2000-2002. P.E.I. is expected to mae the strongest gain in living standards in Canada this year. Nova Scotia will benefit from ramped up production at Sable Island. New Brunswick’s communications industry is thriving. As a result unemployment rates throughout the region are set to fall sharply.
“In the Atlantic region, Newfoundland is expected to outperform its neighbours by a wide margin, as a flourishing oil and gas sector boosts economic growth,” says Burleton, “However, all of the Maritime provinces can look forward to strong gains in employment and personal incomes over the next three years.”
In Quebec, economic growth is expected to reach 4% in 2000. Unemployment will remain at its 24-year low, tax cuts are on the horizon and real personal disposable income is set to grow strongly. Montreal is leading the province’s rebound says TD, led by its high-tech industries such as telecoms, aerospace and biotechnology. Resource rebounds will bolster the rest of the
province.
-IE Staff