The coming week will be fairly quiet for economic data. Canadian bond traders will also get a day off on Tuesday, as the domestic bond markets, U.S. treasury markets and the central banks close for Remembrance Day and Veteran’s Day, respectively.
The data flows leads off with housing starts in Canada on Monday, followed by merchandise trade and auto sales on Thursday. Manufacturing shipments data is out on Friday.
CIBC World Markets says the housing sector will post another solid number, but expectations are already high after a string of good reports on both starts and permits. “Exports and imports will boom after the power blackout distorted results in August. Manufacturing shipments will see the same sort of spectacular bounce-back, for the very same reason. All of this will be needed merely to give quarterly GDP a shot at 2.5% growth, after August’s 0.7% monthly decline in output.”
BMO Nesbitt Burns says that the trade and manufacturing data will provide an excellent read on how fully the Canadian economy rebounded from the August blackout. “Presumably, the big declines in exports, imports, shipments and orders will be almost fully reversed. If not, then underlying growth in Canada is weaker than expected, especially since the U.S. economy was running strong by September.” It is looking for exports to rebound 2% and imports to pop back up by 5%, trimming the surplus to $4.5 billion. And, it expects a 4.7% recovery in shipments.
Nesbitt also notes that Paul Martin’s coronation as the next Prime Minister is set for November 12-15. The outcome was predetermined in September and Nesbitt says that it is expected that Martin and Jean Chretien will begin to discuss the formal transition of power, which may occur as early as November 28.
In the United States, the week is back-end loaded. Trade data is out on Thursday, but Friday is the heavy day with retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, producer price inflation and the Michigan sentiment index.
“In the U.S., the market will excuse a second soft retail sales report, coming as it does on the heels of two huge months back in July and August,” says CIBC. “In contrast to the tepid sales reports, industrial production should be firm if the ISM report tells us anything. Indeed, for the quarter as a whole, this should be stronger times for factory output than for demand, as production gears up to replenish inventories after the unexpected strength of Q3 demand.”
Nesbitt says, “Retail sales will do well to register any increase with vehicle sales a drag and chain store results on the tepid side. Factory output, as well, may be up only modestly reflecting the lack of any material gains in labour inputs. We may see some further hints from the non-oil import costs and pipeline PPI components that suggest possible inflation increases next year. For now, however, core PPI is expected to be well controlled.” And, it notes that, “University of Michigan consumer sentiment is expected to be higher in early November in a Friday report that, perhaps, represents the best chance for an upside surprise next week.”
On the earnings front, Axcan Pharma reports on Monday, along with Residential Equities REIT and RioCan.
Angiotech Pharmaceuticals, Draxis Health, CGI Group, and George Weston report on Tuesday.
Wednesday brings Claude Resources, Computer Sciences, and IAMGOLD. Creo reports on Thursday, as does Canadian Tire, Randgold Resources, Newmont Mining and Tembec Inc.
Friday’s line up includes Boardwalk Equities Inc., Fort Chicago Energy Partners L.P., Open Text and Queenstake Resources.
Bond market closed Tuesday
Merchandise trade figures coming on Thursday
- By: James Langton
- November 10, 2003 November 10, 2003
- 08:30