(March 10 – 16:10 ET) – Economists seem to be girding for a gloomy week ahead on the data front, with ugly oil price gains expected to start showing up in inflation figures.
CIBC World Markets is anticipating a strong retail sales figure in the U.S. for February, and that the U.S. Consumer Price Index will push through the 3% limit on the strength of oil prices on Friday. It’s not expecting much impact from what it now characterizes as an “oil shock” on consumer prices.
Nevertheless, the numbers will likely give some pause to the “new economy” zealots. There’s a heavy data schedule in the U.S. next week, including Tuesday’s retail sales report, capacity utilization and industrial production on Wednesday, the Producer Price Index on Thursday, and the CPI slated for Friday.
Canada will get its own CPI report on Wednesday and CIBC expects it will show inflation still under control, but with today’s employment report it’s still expecting interest rate rises in lockstep with the U.S. Federal Reserve Board on March 21: “With Thiessen et al well aware of the upside risks to the inflation outlook, a matching move by the Bank in response to a March Fed rate hike looks to be a lock.”
– IE Staff