After lagging the national expansion from 1997 through 2002, British Columbia’s prospects are now brightening, according to a report released today by Scotia Economics.

“Provincial government policy adjustments, alongside the economic pickup in the United States and abroad, are expected to lift B.C.’s annual growth to the 3% range this year and next,” said Mary Webb, senior economist, Scotia Economics, in a news release. “The shift to positive net interprovincial in-migration last year, following five years of substantial outflows, testifies to B.C.’s more buoyant outlook.”

In the report, Provincial Pulse – British Columbia Profile, Scotia Economics forecasts the Canadian economy to advance 2.7% this year, just over half of the 5% gain expected for the United States. In 2005, as the U.S. economy’s growth moderates to just over 3 1/2%, Canada’s expansion is expected to firm to 3%. Both this year and next, growth will remain tilted towards Western Canada, reflecting the upbeat outlook for its petroleum sector.

“British Columbia is well positioned to further develop its West Coast presence as well as strengthen its ties with Asia,” observed Webb. “A quarter of the province’s international exports in 2003 were destined for Asian markets, compared with the other nine provinces’ 4% share. The value of B.C.’s shipments to China has more than doubled in the last five years. Its export receipts from Japan and the rest of Asia have fallen since 1995, but the province maintains a significant lead in market penetration.”

According to the report, activity in B.C.’s resource sector will advance over the forecast period, propelled by natural gas.

“An upbeat housing sector is expected to lift provincial growth again this year,” said Webb. “Starts are forecast to climb by more than 25% to 33,000 units in 2004, with the Lower Mainland accounting for much of this increase.”

“The B.C. government is on track to eliminate its budget deficit in fiscal 2004-05. Several positive developments have occurred since the its February 2004 Budget, including higher-than-expected natural gas prices,” said Webb. “Balanced books will put British Columbia in a stronger position to deal with both the challenges and the opportunities posed by the 2010 Winter Olympics.”