By James Langton

(February 19 – 07:10 ET) – This week will be a short one in the U.S. with Presidents’ Day on Monday. In Canada economists will be trying to figure out “how slow is slow.”

A series of Canadian economic releases should help give a better picture of the depth of the slowdown. Manufacturing shipment data is due on Monday. BMO Nesbitt Burns is expecting to see the slowdown make itself known in these numbers with firms trying to dump inventory rather than ship new units.

Bank of Canada governor David Dodge will be giving his first official speech to the Toronto Board of Trade on Tuesday. It will be closely watched for any sign of a gloomier outlook for the economy, and a signal of future rate moves. CIBC World Markets is expecting little more than a re-hash of last week’s Monetary Policy Report.

Wednesday will be the big day for the U.S. The Consumer Price Index is due on the docket. After last Friday’s surprising Producer Price Index report economists are on watch, looking for signs of inflation. The consensus among economists is for a 0.3% increase on the headline, 0.2% on the core. At BMO Nesbitt Burns, they’re saying that there “should be widespread signs that the inventory correction is contributing to price discounting in the core components.”

The merchandise trade balance will also be reported on Wednesday. The surplus is expected to decline thanks to the sputtering auto sector.

On Thursday in the U.S., trade balance numbers are due. In Canada, its retail trade numbers. Both should get some attention, although the U.S. trade deficit is expected to stay at around US$33 billion. Economists are looking for a 0.5% increase in Canadian retail sales for the month of December.

“Add it all up,” says CIBC World Markets, “and there should be enough question marks raised about Canada’s near-term growth prospects to open the door to a half point cut by the Bank of Canada on March 6.”

The earnings picture doesn’t look that exciting this week. Retailers will be the focus in the U.S. In Canada, it will be a mixed bag.

On Monday and Tuesday, Canadian Utilities Ltd. and a couple of REITs will report. Wednesday things will open up a bit with reports from Alberta Energy Company, Encal Energy, Loblaw Cos., Shermag Inc. and Westcoast Energy Inc. A few more REITs will report on Thursday, joined by Kingsway Financial, National Bank, Uniforet and Oxford Property. On Friday, Royal Bank is slated to report, as is Cambior Inc.

In the U.S., First Call notes, the biggest report should be Dow components, Wal-Mart and Home Depot, on Tuesday. Neiman-Marcus is reporting on Monday, Abercrombie & Fitch is on Tuesday, and JC Penney and Nordstrom report on Thursday.