After several busy weeks, the schedule of economic data releases is light this week, and the earnings calendar is almost bare.

RBC Financial says that this week will be a slow one in terms of Canadian economic releases. “Market attention will likely focus on consumer prices for the month of April, which are due out on Thursday,” RBC says.

Other releases include March international securities transactions and the April leading indicator, both due out on Wednesday.

On the political calendar, Ontario will release its budget on Tuesday, but BMO Nesbitt Burns notes that all of the week’s news could be upstaged by federal election call next.

“In Canada, CPI takes center stage, and as in the US, a return to less-favorable year-on-year comparisons for energy prices will see the headline rate jump to 1.8%.” And, it says core inflation will jump too. “Even with all of that, the Bank’s core measure will still be comfortably below the 2% mid-point of its target band.”

“Looking forward, the headline inflation rate is likely to keep rising with gasoline prices still reaching for the sky,” says Nesbitt. “The Bank’s sanguine view that core inflation will also stay below the 2% target until late 2005 will be challenged by rising price pressures in the U.S. and by the upward pressure from the sinking Canadian dollar. Accordingly, look for the Bank to begin shifting first its tone and then its gears in the second half of this year.”

South of the border

In the U.S., CIBC says that last week’s data deluge leaves only housing starts on tap as a potential market mover in the week ahead. “Markets will be keeping an eye on other developments, including the supercharged crude oil price, and weekly jobless benefit claims.”

On Monday, the Empire State purchasing manager’s index is out, followed by the NAHB housing market index. Tuesday sees the release of April housing starts along with weekly updates on retail sales and consumer sentiment. The rest of the week’s major economic releases are due out on Thursday, including the April leading indicator, the May Philadelphia Fed index and the weekly claims numbers.

Nesbitt says that it is looking for both housing starts and building permits to dip during April (to the tune of around 1%). It expects the the Empire State Manufacturing and Philly Fed surveys to stay strong, and possibly give some inflation clues.

Earnings news
The only earnings releases on tap include Boston Pizza Royalties Income Fund, Gateway Casinos Income Fund and Retirement Residences REIT on Monday, while RONA Inc. reports on Tuesday.

The banks will kick off their second-quarter earnings season the following week.