While Canadian traders celebrated yesterday, U.S. traders awaited their Independence Day holiday, on Wednesday.
Trading will close early today, in anticpation. “In the U.S., a holiday shortened trading week may not lack for excitement,” says CIBC World Markets. “In the equity market, we1re in the home stretch of earnings – confession season, so there may still be some bad news to come on the upcoming quarterly numbers.”

U.S. markets were open, Monday, and traders got personal income and spending data, as well as a National Association of Purchasing Managers report. “Due to its very commendable track record of late, we would recommend upgrading the
non-manufacturing NAPM report in importance,” says BMO Nesbitt Burns. “The key issue now is whether factory weakness is spilling over into the services and trade sectors of the economy.”

On tuesday, U.S. factory orders data is being released. Canadian building permit numbers will be released on Wednesday.

The big news will be Friday with jobs reports out in both the U.S. and Canada. CIBC says, “In Canada, May employment data were weak, but June should be still weaker, given the clear overhang of workers in the goods sector. A declining or near-flat employment report will be key to setting the stage for a quarter point rate cut by the Bank of Canada later this month.”

BMO agrees that the report will be critical in determining whether rate cuts happen in Canada. “Aside from housing starts, this is the only major economic report the Bank will see before its decision on rates. We expect a
modest increase of just 5,000 jobs in June, and the unemployment rate is likely to edge up to 7.1%.”

BMO says the U.S. report should be week too, but with little chance of an inter-meeting rate move it says the reaction will likely be muted.

On the earnings front, the scene will be quiet, apart from unexpected warnings. First Call says, “The first week of any quarter is usually a very slow week for earnings reports, but with a holiday in the middle of the week and a short day on Tuesday, many will be spending part or all of the week at the beach or the equivalent. As a result, there is almost nothing for earnings reports.”

In Canada, Cogeco Cable will report on Tuesday. Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. is on deck for Wednesday. In the U.S., Alcoa and SunTrust Banks report on Friday.