“Just two weeks ago, a recession was officially declared to have begun in March. Now a small group of bullish economists is declaring that it already is over, or nearly so,” writes Steve Liesman in today’s Wall Street Journal.

“The group, led by Ian Shepherdson at High Frequency Economics and Ed Hyman at ISI Group Inc., is decidedly out on a limb. Most other economists are forecasting that the economy will continue to contract during the current quarter, and a recovery will begin in the spring or summer at the earliest. The Federal Reserve, meeting Tuesday, is expected to cut its target for short-term interest rates for the eleventh time this year to 1.75% from 2% amid concerns over economic weakness. With unemployment rising and the global economy on the ropes, Fed officials are expected to indicate they remain more inclined to lower rates than raise them.”

“There was little reason to be optimistic after Friday’s release of the employment report for November. Among other things, the report said the unemployment rate jumped to 5.7% last month — the highest level in six years — while the economy lost 331,000 jobs.”

“But the bulls, while acknowledging that the employment situation may grow worse before it gets better, note that employment is a lagging indicator and have latched on to other economic data to support what they see as signs of a recovery.”

“The consensus estimate of economists polled by Blue Chip Economic Indicators calls for gross domestic product to contract during the current quarter by 1.3%, then advance slightly by 0.4% during the first quarter of next year.”

“But Messrs. Hyman and Shepherdson believe output for the fourth quarter will be stronger than the third quarter’s 1.1% drop. On Monday, Mr. Hyman’s ISI Group, of New York, said during the final month of the previous three recessions, job losses on average approached the level seen in November.”

“A fall in the level of layoff announcements suggests to Mr. Hyman that job losses may be near a peak. ‘December could be the first month of [economic] recovery,’ wrote Mr. Hyman, who recently cut his forecast for fourth-quarter GDP to -0.5% from -1%. ‘We believe the odds that the economy has already bottomed are higher than the consensus believes.’ “