The fiscal projections of the four big political parties contesting the federal election are reasonable, although they offer starkly different visions for the country, according to Tim O’Neill, chief economist at Bank of Montreal, in a commentary released Friday.

The commentary, Election 2004: Comparing the fiscal and economic platforms of the major partiesfocuses primarily on the platforms of the two possible winners — the Liberals and Conservatives. O’Neill finds that the fiscal numbers actually add up for both platforms, and that deficits could be avoided under either plan.

“It is our contention that the fiscal platforms of both the Liberals and Conservatives are credible in three senses. First, they both rely on virtually identical and quite reasonable revenue projections. Second, governments in the last decade have, at various times, both projected and achieved spending growth profiles comparable to the baseline rates in each of the two platforms. Finally, the platforms can, if adhered to, avoid deficits under reasonable economic circumstances,” he writes.

“While credible and fiscally responsible, the platforms of the Liberals and Conservatives differ markedly on the role envisioned for the federal government in the economy and the tax burden carried by the personal and business sectors,” O’Neill notes.

He writes that the Conservatives would ” effectively reducing the scope of federal government activity,” while the under the Liberals, “the role of the federal government in the economy would be modestly enlarged”.

O’Neill also notes that the NDP would implement large tax increases on corporations and high income Canadians while significantly ramping up spending and providing tax breaks for low income earners. He adds that the Bloc Québécois platform as similar in philosophy to the NDP, although somewhat less ambitious.

“Sustaining a minority government, which the current polls suggest is likely, in the face of these significant policy differences would require a fair bit of compromise,” O’Neill suggests. Nevertheless, he sees some areas of agreement between the various parties. All parties agree that health transfers to the provinces need to be increased.