“The economy could be near a turning point,” writes Grep Ip in today’s Wall Street Journal
“After slipping into recession early last year, then taking another hit Sept. 11, it is showing signs of healing, with the worst economic fears from the terror attack unrealized.”

“It’s too soon to declare that a recovery is under way. Some bits of evidence suggest it is while others show the opposite, such as a just-reported jump in new claims for unemployment benefits.”

“But the picture is always muddy at turning points. This slump is a particularly tough one to read because it’s peculiar, with consumer spending holding up unusually well.”

“When the economy does begin a comeback, there will be telltale signs. Here are six to watch for:

“When businesses start investing again, especially in technology.”

“When companies start warning of better, instead of worse, profits.”

“When stores and dealers start complaining inventories are too low.

When sales of high-end homes strengthen in high-tech hotbeds.”

“When aluminum smelters switch to making aluminum again.”

“When Gary Condit returns to the headlines.”