Households’ economic growth expectations for the next 12 months remain negative, according to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest consumer survey — although higher-income households are more optimistic when it comes to jobs and income growth expectations.
On Friday, the ECB reported that its consumer expectations survey for January — an online survey of 19,000 adults across 11 countries — showed that households are anticipating -1.1% growth over the next 12 months, with an unemployment rate of 11%.
Lower-income households were gloomier about the job market, as they expected an unemployment rate of 13.5% in the year ahead, compared with expectations of a 9.5% rate among higher-income households.
Yet, unemployed respondents reported more optimism about their job prospects, with their expected probability of finding a job in the next three months rising to 30.1% in January, up from 24.5% in October.
Layoff worries among employed respondents also eased a bit, with their expected probability of job loss over the next three months slipping to 8.2% in January, down from 8.5% in October.
At the same time, households’ nominal income growth expectations also ticked up to 1.2% in January, up from 1.1% in December, the ECB said.
“This increase was driven by the highest three income quintiles,” it said.
Median expectations for inflation in the year ahead eased a bit in the latest survey too, with households now saying that they expect inflation to come in at 2.6% this year, down from expectations of 2.8% in December.
“Expectations for inflation three years ahead were unchanged at 2.6%, while inflation expectations for five years ahead decreased to 2.3%, from 2.4%,” the ECB noted.