With a Fed meeting, payroll data and the latest ISM report all on tap this week, U.S. news and numbers should dominate the very light schedule facing Canadian economists.

The only big report due out in Canada this week is the jobs report on Friday. The week will be very quiet otherwise, apart from Thursday’s release of March building permits and the April Ivey PMI. “Nothing else on the Canadian calendar will mean much in a week with a lot of U.S. news flow,” comments CIBC World Markets.

“With the market’s focus squarely centred on the U.S. heavyweights of the FOMC, ISM, and nonfarm payroll report, Canada’s jobs report will attract only fleeting notice,” agrees BMO Nesbitt Burns. “However, there is a major story developing here. Canadian job growth has slowed decisively just as U.S. payrolls are rebounding. Thus, for the first time in over three years, the 3-month trend in Canadian employment has weakened below the U.S. pace.”

RBC Capital Markets says that the median forecast is for 15,000 new jobs. “We are marginally less optimistic in looking to see a 10,000 increase consistent with Canada’s gradually improving economy.” Nesbitt sees the jobless rate staying flat.

CIBC says that the report should “show a disappointing rebound after two months of employment declines, adding to the soft tone of the latest GDP data .If the US has more solid numbers on the same day, that will only add to the momentum towards narrower Canada-US rate spreads.”

This week will be a busy one for U.S. data releases, notes RBC. The April ISM index is out on Monday, along with March construction spending and April vehicle sales data. The Fed’s rate announcement is slated for Tuesday, as is factory orders data. The non-manufacturing ISM is due out on Wednesday, and claims and first-quarter productivity numbers are out Thursday. Friday’s April payrolls number will garner the bulk of market attention, RBC predicts, “Markets will be eagerly waiting to see if the pace of employment growth can even remotely match March’s staggering 300,000-plus new jobs. While April numbers are not expected to come in quite as high, they are still expected to show a very healthy rate of job growth.” Nesbitt expects 200,000 new jobs and no change to the jobless rate.

The Fed will be the other big event. CIBC predicts that it will “follow up recent speeches by conceding that there’s more risks of rising inflation than falling inflation, but Greenspan will want to fudge the statement by also stressing that the upside threat is very small. We doubt that combination will change views yet about prospects for either June or August rate hikes.”

Nesbitt says it is expecting to see a change in the tilt to monetary policy. “We expect that the Fed’s perceived balance of inflation risk will shift to even from almost equal. This would simply ratify what Chairman Alan Greenspan and his FOMC colleagues have been preaching for the past couple weeks.”

As for the other data, CIBC says that the ISM will show continued factory gains, even if the index slips a bit, a result that won’t be that surprising after healthy durable orders figures.

The earnings news also continues to roll this week. Allied Properties REIT, Cominar REIT, Newfoundland Capital Corporation and Newmont Mining Corporation report on Monday.

Bell Nordiq Income Fund, Cascades Inc., Emera, CGI Group, Manitoba Telecom, Nexen, Pengrowth Energy Trust and Talisman Energy Inc. report on Tuesday.

BCE is the biggest name reporting on Wednesday, along with ARC Energy Trust, Aur Resources Inc., Canadian Natural Resources, Enbridge Inc., nerplus Resources Fund, Freehold Royalty Trust, Gaz Metro, InnVest REIT, Quebecor World Inc., Loblaw, Molson, Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated, Shoppers Drug Mart, Superior Plus Income Fund, TELUS Corporation and Torstar.

Acclaim Energy Trust, Alcan Inc, Axcan Pharma Inc, Four Seasons Hotels Inc., Gold Fields, Glamis Gold, Kingsway Financial Services, Provident Energy Trust, Sherritt International, SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. and Stantec Inc. report on Thursday.

Friday brings word from Open Text, Shiningbank Energy Income Fund, TransAlta Power, and Wajax.