(October 7 – 09:30 ET) – According to economists at CIBC, Central Canada has been riding the coat-tails of the runaway U.S. economy, but will slow in 2000.
CIBC says that the Asian crisis of 1998 really exacerbated some the country’s regional differences, knocking back the more resource-dependent provinces. But bank analysts expect that course to reverse as Asia recovers, commodity prices rise, and the U.S. slows.
CIBC’s Josh Mendelsohn goes so far as to suggest that Alberta and Newfoundland could outpace Ontario and Québec next year.
In addition to the improved energy prices, metals prices should also spur growth in B.C. and the Atlantic provinces. B.C. is expected to grow by 0.5% this year, and maybe 1.5% in 2000. Alberta should grow as much as 4% in 2000.
In the prairies the picture is not quite as rosy. Agricultural prices continue to decline. Saskatchewan will grow by about 2% this year, and that should increase modestly in 2000 to 2.5%. While Manitoba may slow from 3% this year to 2.7% next year.
Ontario’s U.S.-driven growth of 4.5% this year, should fall into the 3%
range next year, as the U.S. slows. Québec will likely slow too – from
3.5% this year to 2.5% in 2000. New Brunswick is likely to follow the U.S.
slowing too.
In Nova Scotia, growth will be about 3.5% this year, slowing to 3% in 2000.
Similarly PEI’s 1.7% growth this year is expected to slip to 1.4% next year.
While Newfoundland’s growth could hit 4.5% this year, it will slip slightly to 3.5% next
year.
-IE Staff
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