The U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index fell in June. This follows a drop from 110 to 106 in May. The continued decline eliminated gains from the previous three months, but consumption trends show little sign of slowing.
BMO Nesbitt Burns suggests that the dip in confidence was “probably related to heightened terrorism worries and the stock market turmoil seen lately. Although the direction was down, we still believe the right message is that confidence is holding up well. By historical standards, both the level of confidence and the size of the June decline are not threatening.”
RBC also points out that the boom in U.S. housing markets is showing no signs of ending. “Moreover, house price gains remain robust and widespread geographically which is very significant from the point of view of supporting consumer confidence. Also, with mortgage rates edging lower in recent weeks, the housing market should remain strong for a while longer.”
“U.S. consumers are beginning to show some signs of stress, particularly in light of the continued weakness of the labour market,” say analysts from RBC Financial. “In fact, the share of consumers that believe that jobs are hard to find rose to 23.1%, the highest since 1996. Less consumers believe that business conditions or the labour market will improve in the next six months. However, this is not yet translating into a significant downgrading of future buying intentions, although they are slightly down from May, reminding us once again not to underestimate the remarkably resilient the U.S. consumer.”