(September 22 – 18:00 ) – Everyone is talking about the E’s that influence markets — energy, earnings, economy, elections and the euro — all five commanded attention this week, and will continue to do so next week.
This morning the world’s central banks got together to shore up the euro, hopefully averting more earnings surprises like the one from Intel Corp. that rocked markets overnight and this morning. The market rallied off Intel-related lows however, giving some traders a real sense of relief. RBC DS expects to see the euro stronger in the long run, although it may retest its lows.
At the close of trading on Friday, the U.S. Department of Energy announced it would tap its strategic reserve of oil to reduce some of the pressure on supplies. Analysts expect prices to ease as a consequence, not just as a matter of more supply, but in response to the U.S. attitude that current prices are intolerable.
Next week the E’s should rule again, although the focus will be the economy rather than earnings. Over the weekend, the G7 finance ministers meet. CIBC World Markets anticipates some euro friendly chatter.
On Monday, existing home sales are reported in the U.S., along with international securities transactions in Canada. U.S. consumer confidence comes on Tuesday, but more important will be a meeting of OPEC ministers in Venezuela.
U.S. durable goods orders will come on Wednesday. BMO Nesbitt Burns is calling for a large headline rise, 2.7%, but says it signals a top rather than continued strength. Also on Wednesday is the the release of average weekly earnings in Canada and the start of the IMF/World Bank meetings.
On Thursday, U.S. real GDP numbers are due. In Canada, there will be the release of industrial product prices and raw material prices. These prices are August’s and BMO Nesbitt Burns except them to be subdued.
Friday brings U.S. personal income and expenditure reports, along with real GDP in Canada. BMO says the GDP number should move 0.3% higher, thanks to strong retail sales and housing, although manufacturing shipments should restrain a large gain. CIBC World Markets agrees with the forecast, but insists that politics will capture the attention this week not economic releases.
The earnings picture is quiet with Palm reporting on Monday and 3Com on Tuesday. Wednesday’s big news may be Bank of America’s meeting on energy management featuring heavyweights such as: Exxon, Conoco, Anadarko, Cooper Cameron, and others.
Thursday sees Research in Motion report along with some consumer cyclicals, and Goldman Sachs holds a meeting on biotech featuring Genentech, Biogen, Chiron, Genzyme General, Human Genome Systems and others.
Friday will have little to offer.