Stock markets in Canada and the U.S. lost ground on Friday as the U.S.-Iran war continued to send oil prices higher and investors sifted through economic data from both North American countries.
“We’re two weeks into the war, and I think you’ve got people de-risking and thinking through the macro implications of an energy crisis, what that means for inflation and interest rate policy,” said Brian Madden, chief investment officer with First Avenue Investment Counsel.
The April crude oil contract was up US$2.98 at US$98.71 per barrel.
Oil prices have been volatile since the war began almost two weeks ago. Iran’s actions have effectively stopped cargo traffic through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world’s oil typically sails. That has oil producers cutting production because their crude has nowhere to go.
If the war continues to hamper the production and transportation of oil from the Persian Gulf, it could cause a surge in inflation that could hurt the global economy.
“I think we’re in the midst of probably a garden variety correction, but a non-trivial chance of something worse; oil’s pretty important,” Madden said.
Analysts have said that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices could jump to US$150 relatively quickly.
While the International Energy Agency said Wednesday its members would make a record 400 million barrels of oil available from their emergency reserves, some economists believe that will do little to reassure markets.
U.S. President Donald Trump signalled earlier this week that he would take more action to address the squeeze on oil flows. The move follows the administration’s decision to grant temporary permission for India to buy Russian oil.
Separately, the U.S. Commerce Department said prices rose 2.8% in January compared with a year earlier. Meanwhile, the U.S. Labor Department reported Friday the country’s job openings jumped to nearly seven million in January, topping economists’ forecasts.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 119.38 points at 46,558.47. The S&P 500 index was down 40.43 points at 6,632.19, while the Nasdaq composite was down 206.62 points at 22,105.36.
The S&P/TSX composite index was down 298.67 points at 32,541.93.
Madden said there appears to be a defensive rotation going on in Canada’s benchmark index, with lower-risk areas of the market like consumer non-cyclicals, utilities and real estate seeing gains. But that movement was offset by losses in the basic materials sector as the price of gold moved lower.
The April gold contract was down US$64.10 at US$5,061.7 an ounce.
Canadian investors also sifted through a fresh report from Statistics Canada showing the economy faced sharp job losses in February, suggesting the labour market is struggling after nearly a year of U.S. tariff pressures.
In its monthly labour force survey, Statistics Canada said Friday that employers collectively shed 84,000 positions in February, driving the unemployment rate up two-tenths of a point to 6.7%.
“That jobs report, there’s no sugar-coating it, it was ugly,” Madden said.
He said the jobs figures predate the breakout of hostilities between the U.S. and Iran and were more reflective of longer-standing uncertainties and pressures facing the Canadian economy, like trade and the upcoming review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement on trade.
The Canadian dollar traded for 72.92 cents US compared with 73.44 cents US on Thursday.
— With files from The Associated Press