The U.S. trade deficit continued to grow in September, a sign, economists said, of good things to come.

The deficit widened to $41.3 billion in September from a revised $39.5 billion in August, slightly wider than markets were expecting. (All numbers in U.S. dollars).

Imports were up 3.3%, while exports also jumped, up 2.8%, following successive declines of 2.2% and 2.6%, respectively, in August.

“On balance, the U.S. trade deficit in September was approximately in line with the Commerce Department’s assumption of a sharp 7.2% jump in third quarter real economic growth,” said RBC Financial Group economist Carl Gomez.

“But more telling, the monthly trend for both exports and imports as the U.S. economy embarks on the fourth quarter should continue to be a good news story, even if there is a marginal slowdown in consumer demand. On balance, we expect that the U.S. is poised to grow above 4% in both the fourth quarter of this year and in the first quarter of 2004.”

BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. chief economist Sherry Cooper said autos and capital goods dominated the monthly changes in both imports and exports. “Imports rose to a record level as U.S. consumers maintained their spending habits, while the increase in exports reflected the positive influence of the global economic upturn.”

“The trade deficit has remained at a lofty level, as the U.S. economy has regained its position as the engine of global growth. However, the lower U.S. dollar and the improving outlook for the global economy, suggest that the trade imbalance should begin to narrow,” Cooper said.

However, CIBC World Markets sees it from the opposite side, saying, “In spite of the competitive benefits from a lower dollar, today’s report highlights the continuing upside risks for the trade deficit, as the U.S. economy continues to outperform the majority of its key trading partners.”

Cooper says that the imbalance with China continued to grow with the deficit climbing to $12.7 billion – yet another new record – while the shortfall with the E.U. increased after plunging in August. “Despite the downtrend in the US$, trade imbalances have yet to begin to narrow on a sustained basis, even against those currencies that have strengthened sharply versus the greenback.”

There was other good news for the U.S. economy, with initial jobless claims rising by a slightly less than expected 13,000 to 366,000 last week. RBC’s Gomez said that more important, “the four-week moving average, which smoothes out volatile weekly movements in this series, fell to a 32-month low of 375,250. The U.S. job market is improving and today’s claims numbers suggest that the November payrolls report due out in early December will show an improvement upon the 126,000 jobs created in October.

“Bond markets are not responding to this favourable report by sending interest rates higher, however, as recently released comments by Fed officials suggesting that rates could stay low for an extended period of time are dominating.”

Also released today, U.S. import prices increased 0.1% in October vs a revised 0.4% contraction in September. Meanwhile export prices gained 0.3%. Both estimates were below market expectations, Gomez said.

“These figures were reassuring, supporting the Fed’s claim that inflation will not soon be a problem and that they can afford to be patient,” Cooper said.