In contrast to the huge miss in forecasting Canadian trade data, economists were bang on with the U.S. numbers. That doesn’t mean the picture is any prettier, though.

Economists blew their call on the Canadian trade surplus by about $1 billion, but they were right on target with their U.S. calls, as the trade deficit there rose to US$29.4 billion. May’s data was revised down to US$28.5 billion.

“There was no surprise in this morning’s U.S. trade deficit figures,” says BMO Nesbitt Burns. “The good news is that the deficit did not meet fears of breaching the $30 billion mark.”

But that’s pretty much it for the good news. “Today’s U.S. trade report speaks directly to the bleak state of the global economy,” says CIBC World Markets. “For the third time in the past four months, U.S. exports fell, dropping 2% in the month of June.”

BMO confirms this dim view, noting, “Examining the breakdown between exports and imports points to the fact that global trade activity is buckling. The grim economic slowdown faced by customers of the U.S. clearly cut into demand for American goods and services. The domestic economy is not faring well either. Imports slid for the third month in a row, and are now down 4.9% year-over-year, the steepest decline in at least eight years.”

For the most part, this isn’t news to economists. “In light of today’s weak trade report, we expect only a modest downward revision to Q2 GDP,” says CIBC. “But the spreading economic weakness in America’s key trading partners suggests no relief from the manufacturing recession in Q3.”

BMO concludes, “The U.S. dollar has softened in recent days, partially on concerns over the massive U.S. trade gap. If the trend in the currency continues, it will ultimately provide support to the still-high deficit. However, the impact on trade generally takes at least 12 to 18 months to unfold. While this report is no worse-than-expected, it clearly shows the impact of fading global growth.”