The shock of higher energy prices to economic growth will be felt worldwide through an increasing global imbalance between high investment and low consumer spending, suggests a U.S. think tank.

In a report released today, the U.S. Conference Board notes that the steady rise of global commodity prices since 2002 has been led by spiraling oil prices.

“There have been a number of additional factors motivating these increases: exceptionally low interest and inflation rates, a surge in emerging market demand led by heavy investment in China, the acceleration of global manufacturing activity in 2004, and a shortfall in natural resource investment for almost 20 years,” the report explains.

“The relationship between U.S. crude oil stocks and oil prices has become unhinged during the past year, probably due to new demand/supply factors heavily influenced by China,” says Gail Fosler, executive vice president and chief economist of The Conference Board.

These imbalances have generated major crises in the past, both in the U.S. and abroad, it notes; although there are important offsets — particularly by deep discounting in other prices — today. Despite recent dips in energy prices and holiday promotions, consumers across the U.S. will be hard hit in the short term.

Fosler adds, “The recent energy shock is reminiscent of the 1970s. Rising gasoline prices have taken the energy share of consumer spending from about 4% in 2001 to 6.5% this September — the highest level in more than 20 years.”

Estimates from The Conference Board show that a permanent increase of 50¢ per gallon in the price of retail gasoline will reduce the level of real personal consumption by 1% to 1.5% within a year.

It points out that consumers have benefited from low interest rates and home equity refinancing, trends that have supported spending power in the face of relatively modest wage growth. Now, rising interest rates and the magnitude of the hurricane-related gasoline shock appear to be taking their toll. Auto sales are likely to be down 30% year over year and 4.5% from the third quarter.

“Probably the most critical impact of higher energy prices is their ability to weaken consumer spending relative to investment and impose margin pressure on energy-intensive industries globally,” says Fosler. “Investment is driving most of the economic growth around the world and in the U.S. History suggests that, despite the huge amounts of cash available to fund investment, investment rates cannot be sustained if they get too far ahead of consumer spending.”