As the centennial anniversary of the Great San Francisco earthquake and fire of 1906 approaches, insurers are asking: What if it happened again?

In the April issue of Best’s Review — which is put out by insurance rating agency A.M. Best Co. — reports that if a similar earthquake occurred today, insured losses could reach $105 billion. Risk management firm Eqecat predicts insured losses likely would reach $30 billion-$40 billion; Risk Management Solutions estimates $80 billion-$105 billion; and AIR Worldwide said insured property losses would reach almost $80 billion.

In a 2006 scenario, however, insurers have the advantage of catastrophe modelling, which evolved out of the science and research that developed in response to the 1906 quake. They also reap the benefits of significant risk mitigation efforts, including updated building mandates from the International Code Council and a modern fire-fighting infrastructure. Most of the damage in 1906 came from the fire following the earthquake.

Offsetting some of insurers’ advantages is the significant increase in the number and value of insured properties. AIR Worldwide estimates the current value of residential and commercial properties within the damage footprint of the 1906 quake at more than $1.6 trillion.