“Exactly three years ago today, all seemed bright to investors. Now there is little to cheer about, as investors who once were able to see only the positive now seem transfixed by what could go wrong,” writes Floyd Norris in today’s New York Times.

“It was on March 10, 2000, that the Nasdaq composite index hit a peak of 5,048.62. It had doubled since the previous summer, and those who had warned of a bubble in technology stocks had been so wrong for so long that few listened to them any longer.”

“But they were about to be proved right. Within little more than a month, the Nasdaq had lost a third of its value, and while it temporarily rebounded after that, it has never come close to its old highs.”

“Then, in March 2001, a recession began. Six months after that, two planes hit the World Trade Center, and another slammed into the Pentagon. The recession probably ended in late 2001, but the after-effects of the bubble continue to plague the economy. The telecommunications industry — whose bubble was far larger than the Internet’s, at least as measured by dollars invested and lost — remains depressed, and the term ‘jobless recovery’ is popular.”

“No wonder it is the one-time bears who are now most likely to get a respectful hearing from investors. Jack B. Grubman and Frank P. Quattrone, who three years ago could dole out millions in initial public offering profits, are now more likely to be spending time with their lawyers than with speculators seeking their wisdom and favors. The I.P.O. market is all but dead.”

” ‘The striking difference between now and then is that the supreme confidence that things would work out has been replaced by a ghoulish fascination with what could go wrong,’ said Robert J. Barbera, the chief economist of ITG/Hoenig. A bear then, Mr. Barbera now thinks prices are depressed by concerns about Iraq, and expects a rally if a war goes well from the American perspective.”

“Warren E. Buffett repeatedly issued bearish pronouncements when stocks were nearing their peak, and he refused to buy technology stocks for the portfolio at Berkshire Hathaway, the company he runs. As a result, investors gradually concluded that he had lost his touch. From mid-1998 through the peak three years ago, the price of Berkshire Hathaway shares fell 47 percent, while the Nasdaq composite was rising 166 percent. Since then, Berkshire is up 56 percent, while the Nasdaq composite index is down 74 percent.”