Budget 2025 planned $285 billion of capital spending to support third parties that it said would “enable more than $1 trillion in total investments” from 2025 to 2030.
Infrastructure, housing and industrial development programs accounted for 71% of the $285 billion. The total investment impact is contingent on external partner participation, such as by private companies.
However, the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) on Wednesday released a more conservative estimate, projecting that the federal spending would support $896.1 billion in total investment — $183.9 billion less than the government estimated.
And, of the $285 billion in announced federal spending, only $41.3 billion came from new measures introduced in Budget 2025. The rest is planned spending that was in place prior to the budget.
Thus, just $126.4 billion of the $896.1 billion of estimated impact is tied to the new measures, lower than the Department of Finance’s estimate of $165.8 billion.
The PBO’s analysis didn’t assess whether the government’s investments would proceed in the absence of federal support for third parties, nor did it examine whether federal spending in support of third parties could displace other projects.