“May you live in boring times. For those familiar with the old Chinese curse about living in interesting times, boring may sound like a blessing, and it may well become one for investors. But it is flustering money managers this year,” writes Floyd Norris in today’s New York Times.

“It is not that they are losing money, although some are. It is just that few seem to be making much money. It has been more than a decade since stock markets have traded in such a narrow range for the first half of a year.”

“One hedge fund manager complains that nothing is working this year – for him or his competitors. It is a bit like what they say about New England weather: if you don’t like the trend, wait five minutes and it will change.”

“The Standard & Poor’s 500 has gone nowhere. It is down about half a percent since the end of 2003, with the year’s high, of 1,163.23 on March 5, only 8.1 percent higher than the low of 1,076.32, reached May 12. The range is the smallest for the start of a year since 1993.”

“And the United States is far from alone. In France, the first six months saw a range of 9.6 percent in the CAC 40, the smallest swing since that index was reconstituted in 1987. In Germany, the year got off to the most boring start since 1990 for the DAX index, with a range of 13.1 percent. In Britain, the FTSE All Shares index has shown a range of 6.5 percent, the smallest since 1982.”

“In Japan, long the leader in stock market volatility, the Nikkei 225 is up 6.9 percent this year, the best of any major market. The range of 18.4 percent is larger than in other markets but is Japan’s smallest since 1996.”

“Perhaps dull markets are correlated with discontent with politicians. The economic news has generally been good around the world, but this has not been a year of joy for political parties in power. The Spanish government was voted out of office. The European parliament elections saw the governing parties rebuffed in nearly every country. In Japan, the upper house elections were a setback for the ruling party. The approval ratings for President Bush have declined.”

“Dull markets could reflect an uncertainty over the state of the world that has frustrated investors and voters.”

“Going back to 1928, when the S.& P. 500 began, only two previous presidential election years produced an index that had as listless a first six months as in 2004, and in each case the news was bad for the incumbent party. In 1952, the range was 8.1 percent, and the Democrats were swept out of office. In 1992, the range was 7.3 percent, and President Bush failed to win re-election.”