Thanks to a boost from China’s reopening and surprising resilience in the global economy, prospects for the global mining sector are improving, Fitch Ratings says.
The rating agency revised its outlook for the sector up to “neutral” from “deteriorating,” citing several factors, including upside surprises in demand.
To start, the end of pandemic-driven restrictions in China, which consumes over half of the world’s major mining commodities, enhanced the demand for key metals such as iron ore, coal, nickel and zinc.
Additionally, increased infrastructure investment and seasonal construction is boosting demand for steel in China, it said.
The upswing in demand “supports our more positive view of the sector,” Fitch said.
Alongside China’s rebound, world economic activity is “also holding up better than expected,” it noted, adding that it recently revised its global GDP growth forecast in 2023 to 2.4%, up from its previous call of 1.4%.
Global efforts to transition to a low-carbon economy also support the outlook for global miners, it said.
Amid the strengthening of demand, commodity markets still remain relatively balanced, Fitch said: “Supply and demand in major mining commodities remain balanced with no concerns about fundamental oversupply.”
Against this improved backdrop, “We expect global mining companies’ leverage to remain broadly stable, with flat free cash-flow margins and a moderate decline in revenue in 2023 compared to 2022,” it said.