High oil prices and increased production will make Alberta and Newfoundland the economic growth leaders among Canadian provinces this year, according to The Conference Board of Canada’s Provincial Outlook, Winter 2003 released today in Toronto.

“All the provinces will fare reasonably well over the next two years, but the gains will not be equally shared,” said Paul Darby, Director of Economic Forecasting. “The two provinces with significant energy production will benefit the most from the world-wide increase in crude oil prices, and that will show in their growth rates.”

Alberta will climb from almost no growth in 2002, to a top-ranked 5.5% expansion of real gross domestic product (GDP) this year, as its booming energy sector spurs higher employment and strong domestic demand. Newfoundland led all provinces in 2002, and is poised to grow by 4.7% in 2003 due to offshore oil production and the construction of the Voisey’s Bay mining project.

New Brunswick will record 3.8% growth in 2003 on the strength of several large construction projects. Prince Edward Island’s economy will expand by 3.1%, as agriculture and tourism sectors lead the way. A decline in energy investment will reduce Nova Scotia’s growth forecast to 2.7% this year.

Quebec, Ontario, and Manitoba will produce consistent growth rates at or above 3% in 2003 and 2004. The anticipated recovery in the United States economy will support the manufacturing sectors in all three of these provinces.

Growth in Saskatchewan’s agriculture and mining sectors will produce an economic expansion of 2.7% in 2003.

The British Columbia economy seemed to be recovering in the first half of 2002, when it led all provinces in job creation, but employment growth has been weak since last August. B.C. is expected to maintain its 2.5% growth rate throughout 2003.