As the fallout from the U.S.-Iran war eventually eases, the growth of global corporate operating cash is projected to pick up in 2027 — funding increased capital spending, says Fitch Ratings.
In a new report, the rating agency forecasts that corporate cash flow from the global non-financial companies it rates will grow by 9% in 2027, after rising by a projected 7% this year.
That acceleration is expected to come alongside a small pickup in GDP growth — Fitch expects world GDP to rise by 2.5% in 2027, up from 2.4% this year — as the effects of the oil price shock, driven by the conflict in the Middle East and accompanying supply-chain disruptions, ease next year.
Against that backdrop, the rating agency’s base case assumption for oil prices is US$65 per barrel next year, compared with an average of US$87 per barrel for 2026.
“This is likely to support low-single-digit aggregate revenue growth, improved profitability and less working capital usage for corporate issuers,” the report said.
Companies in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to lead the way, with 18% growth in operating cash flow, followed by North America at 9% and the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region at 3%. Latin America, meanwhile, is expected to see a 1% decline, following a strong 22% growth this year.
Fitch also expects capital expenditure to increase globally through 2027, driven by surging AI investment, with between 70% and 73% of funds from operations being devoted to capex — while dividend payments are projected to consume 22%-23% of funds from operations.