The western cities of Regina, Calgary and Edmonton will post the highest rates of economic growth in 2004, according to The Conference Board of Canada’s Metropolitan Outlook — Winter 2004.

“Western cities make up five of the top seven economies in this outlook,” said Mario Lefebvre, director, Metropolitan Outlook Service. “Calgary and Edmonton continue to benefit from healthy activity in the energy sector and high levels of domestic demand. The services and construction sectors in both Alberta cities are performing well, thanks to strong population growth.”

Following a decline in real gross domestic product in 2003, Regina’s economy will grow by 5.1% this year, lifting employment growth to a very sound 3.9%. Agriculture output will rebound as a result of a recovery in grain production.

Calgary’s economy remains healthy, with real GDP forecast to expand by 4.4% in 2004. Between 2005 and 2008, Calgary is expected to post annual average growth of 3.6% — equalling Toronto for the strongest medium-term growth among all Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs).

Strong oil and gas sector investment will also sustain robust economic growth in Edmonton, where real GDP is forecast to expand by 4.1% in 2004.

After an up-and-down 2003, Winnipeg is expected to enjoy economic growth of 3.8% in 2004. According to the Conference Board, a recovery in manufacturing and continued strength in the services sector will boost growth this year and help reduce the city’s unemployment rate to about 5%, which is among the lowest in Canada.

Strong employment growth throughout 2003 will provide a lift to Vancouver’s domestic demand in 2004. As a result, real GDP growth in the city is forecast to reach 3.4% this year. The Conference Board says Vancouver’s medium-term outlook is also strong, especially with the city gearing up to play host to the 2010 Winter Olympics. Economic growth is expected to average 3.5% per year between 2005 and 2008.

Rebounds in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors are expected to support real GDP growth of 2.9% in 2004 for Saskatoon.

Victoria’s troubles are expected to continue in 2004. After falling by 1.3% in 2003, real GDP is forecast to increase by a modest 1.8% this year.

As for other major Canadian centres, Toronto will regain its place as one of Canada’s top performing economies in 2004, according to the Conference Board of Canada. Toronto’s real GDP is projected to grow by 3.5% in 2004..

Ottawa-Gatineau’s economy will grow by an estimated 3% in 2004, down slightly from 3.8% in 2003..

Montreal and Quebec City will post stronger economic growth in 2004 as the U.S. economic recovery stimulates demand for Quebec-based goods.

Real GDP growth in Montreal is forecast to reach 3.4% in 2004. Almost 28,000 jobs will be created this year, as the city recoups most of the job losses suffered during late 2002 and 2003..

Along with the manufacturing rebound, Quebec City will benefit from a solid performance in the services sector, which accounts for about 80% of the city’s total economy. Real GDP is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2004.

In the Maritimes, Halifax’s economy will generate modest growth of 2.2% in 2004, down slightly from 2.4% in 2003. A big rebound in manufacturing will be offset by a slowdown in the services sector.

The Metropolitan Outlook, produced three times a year, provides economic insights into 25 CMAs, their related province, and Canada.