With the S&P/TSX composite index jumping 17% since November, UBS Securities Canada Inc. recommends eight stocks for defensive-minded investors.
In a new report, the firm notes that the TSX’s 17% jump since last November ranks it as the fourth-strongest November-to-March performance of the last 25 years. “Not only has this occurred after what was already one of the longest and strongest uninterrupted rallies of the last 50 years, large gains during the TSX’s traditional November-to-May period of seasonal strength have historically preceded larger than usual declines between June and October,” it says.
“As a result, we believe investors should become more defensive-minded, and so suggest eight stocks to provide this tilt relative to their major sector group,” the report notes. “The key point is that they are not just defensive stocks that would only do (relatively) well if the market fell, but rather they are a group that we believe offer a more appealing set of risk/reward parameters relative to others in their sectors.”
UBS breaks the TSX down into four main groups, energy, materials, financials, and the rest. Among the rest, it highlights Onex, Thomson and TransAlta. For the financial group, it points out Bank of Montreal and Sun Life Financial.
In the energy group, UBS says that a defensive tilt can be accomplished by shifting out of the E&P/integrated names into the pipeline/utility plays. “While the former are more exposed to energy prices, the latter include an interest rate risk component. At this point, however, we believe this is a good defensive maneuver,” it says. Its defensive pick is TransCanada.
“A similar approach applies in the materials space, which is dominated by high beta stocks oriented toward global growth,” the report adds. Its defensive picks in the materials sector include Barrick Gold and Potash.