Economy watchers have a busy week ahead of them, notwithstanding the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

While the holiday will push most of the U.S. data into the first half of the week, Canada’s biggest release will likely be Friday’s third quarter real GDP reading.

“With the blackout-related contraction in August, third quarter numbers are expected to be relatively weak compared to those of our southern neighbours, with markets anticipating real annualized growth of 2.5% over the quarter,” says RBC Financial.

CIBC World Markets says that quarterly GDP performance will once again be tempered by shocks, but that September’s GDP results should suggest that economic activity has more recently bounced sharply higher off a distorted base of comparison, “paving the way for a temporary growth spike in Q4”.

The monthly GDP data for September is likely to show a full-fledged bounceback from the massive 0.7% blackout related drop in August, says BMO Nesbitt Burns. “In fact, shipments and exports completely reversed the August decline, and with some underlying growth in other areas GDP is likely to rise 0.8%.”

RBC agrees that the more noteworthy story that appears to be emerging is for the fourth quarter; “the few indicators available so far have been quite positive, and with growth accelerating so quickly in the U.S., it’s likely Canadian growth will snap back sharply and close the year off on a positive note.”

Other noteworthy Canadian releases next week include September retail sales and wholesale trade numbers on Monday and the October leading indicator and industrial product prices on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, RBC says. Third quarter updates are available for the international travel account on Wednesday and the current account on Thursday.

“Monday’s wholesale and retail trade will help shape the outlook for the more important growth results due at week’s end,” comments CIBC.

Nesbitt predicts that wholesale trade is likely to post nearly a 5% rebound, offsetting the prior’s month plunge. “It will be a different story for retail trade, however, as sales were not particularly affected by the blackout,” it says. It is also looking for a widening in the overall current account surplus. “We look for the Q3 surplus to widen modestly to a $23 billion annual rate, in line with the trend since the start of 2002.”

In the U.S., the focus will be Thursday’s holiday, which is followed by the traditional start of the Christmas shopping season on Friday.

Before that, RBC says that revisions to third quarter GDP numbers will be released Tuesday, with expectations calling for slightly higher growth of 7.5% versus the 7.2% initially reported. “Once again, however, fourth-quarter data is starting to garner more and more market attention,” it says. “The biggest story so far is the turnaround in the labour market.”

Nesbitt says that an 8% handle is within the bell curve, but a high-7% reading is, perhaps, more likely. “Since the revision will probably imply that inventory building started earlier than expected, the upward restatement does not suggest even faster growth than earlier expected in Q4.”

Also, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for November and existing home sales for October are due out Tuesday, initial jobless claims data is out on Wednesday, as are final numbers for the Michigan consumer sentiment survey, durable goods orders, new home sales, and personal income and spending. The Chicago PMI will be reported on Friday.

“In the U.S., an abundance of data will keep analysts busy, but don’t look for a sea shift in expectations since many indicators are of secondary importance,” says CIBC. “Among the exceptions to that pattern, Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence report should show a consensus topping pop to a 14-month high. Markets will also be scrutinizing the durable goods report’s details for offsetting strength in business spending, as the lift to households from lower taxes fades.”

Nesbitt predicts that durable goods bookings probably rose modestly in October, but it says that the key number for the week will be the November Chicago-area purchasing managers’ survey, which will be reported to little fanfare Friday morning. “N.Y. and Philadelphia reports were on the strong side and confirmation from Chicago would set up expectations for another blow-away ISM report in the following week,” it says.

On the earnings front, CoolBrands reports on Monday next week, followed by Couche-Tard on Tuesday. CFM, Leon’s Furniture and MKS report on Wednesday. Hudson’s Bay reports on Thursday. Forzani group and Gabriel Resources report on Friday.