Shopping will be the focus next week as we find out how much Canadian and Americans have been buying during the past couple of months. Merchandise trade figures for both countries and retail sales for the U.S. are the main items on what is otherwise a relatively thin economic menu.

Economists are expecting Canada’s trade balance for March, due out on Wednesday, to continue to build on the $4.8 billion posted in February. The market consensus is for the balance to jump to $5 billion, but CIBC World Markets is more bullish, calling for a robust $5.3 billion, although most of it will be thanks to falling imports.

“Resurgent commodity prices (only partly cancelled out by C$ strength) will provide some lift for exports, although a cooler U.S. housing market and declining factory orders are of concern,” says CIBC economist Warren Lovely. “Still, a relatively weaker import performance will bolster the surplus, with import demand dampened by more restrained inventory building.”

The U.S. March trade deficit is expected to expand slightly, to about US$61.6 billion from US$61 billion the moth before. CIBC again is more aggressive, predicting a deficit of US$61.9 billion, another record.

“Exports should rise after two weak months, but an oil-driven import gain will swamp that improvement,” says CIBC’s Leslie Preston. “We expect the nominal trade deficit to widen for longer than previously thought as soft overseas economies dampen export gains.”

In the U.S., retails sales for April, due on Thursday, will paint a picture of how much impact rising gasoline prices and the general uptick in core inflation have had on the U.S. economy.

CIBC is calling for a rebound in April with an increase of 0.8% (vs 0.3% in March), thanks to more seasonable weather conditions. Even excluding auto sales, the increase should be 0.7% (vs 0.1% ex-autos in March). But how much of the jump will be due to higher gas prices?

“However, the significant price contribution from gasoline would leave sales ex-autos & gas up a tame 0.4%, after a –0.1% March reading, continuing a cooling trend in “core” retail sales,” notes Preston.

Back to Canada, Monday will bring a report on housing starts. The good news is there is still life left in this market, but as the slowing in the first quarter showed, there is just not as much. The consensus is for a slight increase in April over March — 220,000 starts vs 219,000 in March — but CIBC is pessimistic. CIBC says the latest residential permit data revealed “softer building intentions, which we expect to translate into starts of 215,000 for April.”

On Wednesday, the focus will be on Ontario Finance Minister Greg Sorbara, who will bring down the province’s budget. The government has promised not increase taxes.

Motor vehicle sales are out on Thursday, followed by manufacturing shipments on Friday.

In the U.S., the remaining data are out Friday, with the release of business inventories for March and the Michigan sentiment survey.

On the earnings schedule are ING Canada Inc, due on Thursday, and Desjardins Group, due on Friday.