Amid political and growth concerns, the global default rate for speculative-grade securities is expected to rise in the year ahead, Moody’s Investors Service says.

The rating agency reports that the trailing 12-month global speculative-grade default rate edged down to 2.1% at the end of 2014 from 2.2% in the third quarter; and, it came in below its year-ago forecast of 2.3%. Based on its forecasting model, Moody’s expects the default rate will increase to 2.7% in 2015.

“Looking ahead, widening high-yield spreads, geopolitical concerns and weak economic growth outside the U.S. may put some upward pressure on the global default rate. However, an improving U.S. economy, together with ample liquidity and manageable maturity profiles should keep the default rate low by historical standards,” says Albert Metz, managing director of Moody’s credit policy research.

Moody’s reports that a total of 54 rated corporate debt issuers defaulted in 2014. Five of these occurred in December, and nine companies defaulted in the fourth quarter. Of the nine defaults, four were from North America, three were in the Asia Pacific region, and the other two were in Europe.

By sector, Moody’s expects default rates to be highest in the consumer services sector in the U.S., and in the aerospace & defense sector in Europe in the next 12 months.

Additionally, it reports that its global distressed index, which measures the percentage of high-yield issuers whose debt is trading at distressed levels, more than doubled to 18.1% in the fourth quarter from 8.3% in the third.