Canadian stocks have exhibited a higher correlation with emerging market stocks than with stocks in the United States or other major developed markets over the past 12 years, according to a new report.
Between December 2002 and June 2015, the S&P/TSX Composite Index had a higher correlation with emerging market stocks, as represented by MSCI Emerging Markets Index, than it did with the S&P 500, MSCI EAFE Index, or other major equity indices, according to a report issued by Toronto-based Provisus Wealth Management on Tuesday.
“Contrary to popular belief, Canadian stocks do have a far closer relationship with emerging market stocks, both currently and over time, than with U.S., European or even Asian stocks,” the Provisus report says.
The central reason for this is the substantial reliance on commodities for both the Canadian markets, and emerging markets. “Clearly Canadian equities perform similarly to those in emerging markets. Given the heavy skewing towards commodity producing companies in these markets this is understandable,” says the Provisus report.
However, despite the high correlation in market performance, Canada is not an emerging market economy, the report notes. “Because Canada is much less volatile and normally without the worries over political upheaval or accounting irregularities that cause investors to shy away from other locales, the true similarities are really much fewer than the differences,” the Provisus report says.