Three western cities, Calgary, Saskatoon, and Edmonton, will lead Canadian cities in economic growth in 2003, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s Metro Outlook-Winter 2003.

Calgary is forecast to post growth of 4.9% in real gross domestic product in 2003, and it will also lead all cities over the 2004-2007 period, with growth averaging 3.3% per year. The expected growth in Calgary over the next few years is relatively strong, since its economy is already running at full employment.

“After recording its lowest rate of increase in real GDP in four years in 2002, Calgary will bounce back and be the national leader in real GDP growth in 2003 and over the medium term,” said Mario Lefebvre, associate director, Metropolitan Outlook.

Saskatoon’s economy will continue to recover from its contraction in 2001, culminating in 4% growth in 2003. In 2002, the housing industry had its best year since 1987, while employment and retail sales gains were strong.

Strong consumer spending and record-breaking housing starts led to sound economic growth in Edmonton in 2002 and this trend will continue well into 2003, as growth is forecast to reach 3.8%. The city of Edmonton is forecast to average 3% growth annually from 2004 to 2007.

St. Catharines is forecast to lead all Ontario cities in 2003, with real GDP growth expected to come in at 3.8%. Toronto’s economy is forecast to post 3.7% growth, while growth in London should reach 3.6%.

Sherbrooke and Trois Rivieres will post growth rates of 3.5% and 3.3% respectively, while Regina, Vancouver, and Winnipeg are all forecast to attain growth of about 3%.

Halifax, Ottawa, and Montreal are forecast to achieve growth of 2.9% in 2003, followed closely by Sudbury and Quebec City at 2.7%, and Thunder Bay at 2.5%.

Further reduction in public sector employment in Victoria is expected to limit the city’s overall real GDP growth to 1.4% in 2003.

Quebec City and Montreal economies grew the fastest in Canada in 2002, with 4.4 and 4.3% increases in real gross domestic product respectively.

The Metropolitan Outlook, produced three times a year, provides economic insights into 25 census metropolitan areas, their related province and Canada.