North American stocks are likely to drop at Tuesday’s open as U.S. traders return from a holiday weekend.

Crude-oil futures topped US$50 a barrel in Europe this morning as traders weighed the possibility of a reduction in supply from OPEC when the producers’ cartel gather in Iran next month. The rise comes amid colder-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast U.S. and Europe.

Here at home, the picture is a bit brighter. Canada’s annual inflation rate was at 2.0% in January, down slightly from the 2.1% rate recorded in December, Statistics Canada said today.

StatsCan said the core inflation rate, which excludes the most volatile commodities, was 1.6%, off from 1.7% in December.

Separately, the government agency said the composite leading indicator continued to firm in January, up 0.2% after a 0.3% gain in December and no growth in November.

Bank of Montreal kicked off bank earnings season today by reporting a 15.5% rise in first-quarter profit. The bank said capital markets revenue climbed, while costs were contained. BMO also raised its quarterly dividend by 2¢ to 46¢ a share.

Later this morning, the U.S. Conference Board is due to release its closely watched consumer confidence index at 10:00 ET. Economists look for the index to have slipped a bit to 103.0 in February from 103.4 last month.

On Monday, financial and gold shares helped boost Bay Street Monday, although many investors appeared to follow their U.S. counterparts and take a holiday.

At close, the S&P/TSX composite index was up 23.56 points or 0.24% to 9,682.31, while the junior S&P/TSX Venture composite index jumped 13.11 points or 0.68% to 1,954.28.

Trading was lacklustre — volume on the TSX was only 155 million shares, considerably off a normal trading day. U.S. markets were closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday.

On the TSX, financial stocks led the charge, adding 0.52%, in anticipation of strong earnings from the banks this week. HSBC Bank Canada said Monday its profits improved in the fourth quarter, finishing off a strong year in which earnings improved 18% over 2003. The Canadian unit does not trade publicly.

Among the most active stocks was BCE Inc., whose shares were up 22¢ to $29.49 following a report that an offer has been made for Bell Globemedia, the company that owns the Globe and Mail and CTV.