Market watchers will be focusing on Canada’s international trade numbers next week, as the last big piece of data before the Bank of Canada sets interest rates the following week. In the U.S., there is also a flurry of data leading up to the next Fed meeting in three weeks time.

RBC Financial says that the final key piece of data between now and the interest rate meeting is next Thursday’s international trade report for November. “October’s trade numbers were weak. If November’s turn out to be similarly weak, the odds may tip in favour of a 25 basis-point cut,” it says.

CIBC World Markets has a brighter view, it says, “After a very disappointing October, we look for a solid 0.9% gain in November, even with prices held down in Canadian dollar terms by the appreciating currency.”

“Strong U.S. industrial activity in that month should have pulled in Canadian-sourced supplies, so both real exports and real manufacturing shipments (due later this month) are likely to register gains,” CIBC notes. “A monthly trade surplus in excess of $5 billion is providing ample support to the dollar.”

“While not normally viewed as a critical release for Bank policy, the trade numbers loom large this time because of [Bank governor David] Dodge’s focus on exports and as an indication of how trade is responding to the conflicting mix of a soaring Canadian dollar and a surging U.S. economy,” BMO Nesbitt Burns notes. “The surplus may stay aloft again in November, but exports will again likely be less than impressive in the face of robust U.S. demand.”

It expects imports to rise by roughly 2%, which would trim the trade surplus to just under $5 billion, in line with the average over the past year. “A further rise in real exports in November would go a long way to soothe the Bank of Canada’s concerns over the sky-trekking loonie. With auto output flagging, it looks like other sectors will need to generate hefty gains,” Nesbitt notes.

Also, building permit data is out on Monday, and auto sales numbers are reported Thursday.

In the U.S., RBC says that next week’s key releases include November international trade on Wednesday, the December CPI, weekly jobless claims and the January Philadelphia Fed index on Thursday, and December industrial production and preliminary January consumer sentiment on Friday. The PPI and Beige Book are also out on Wednesday, with retail sales on Thursday, too.

CIBC predicts that after the big surprise in today’s jobs report, “we might be in store for more of an as-expected picture” in next week’s numbers.

“We don’t share the consensus enthusiasm for December industrial production, given a lackluster factory hours worked figure. Otherwise, moderate inflation and a likewise moderate report on non-auto holiday retail sales shouldn’t come as much of a surprise,” it says. “Attention in the equities market will begin to shift towards what should be fairly healthy Q4 earnings, with three Dow members set to report in the week ahead and the pace picking up the following week.”

Nesbitt says that business inventories and the U.S. trade deficit should both be on the weak side, but look like old news. “The Wednesday Beige Book will likely [show] significant and widespread improvements across the economy. Holiday sales results will flow in and we think they will show decent gains in December from November. Key inflation data, particularly the core CPI will be out. There have been some energy price hikes of late, with natural gas quotes running up substantially. But we see no reason to fear an unusual spike in core CPI, which surprised on the downside last month and gave the Fed lots of room to keep rates low.”

Notwithstanding the start of earnings season in New York, just a handful of notable Canadian firms report next week. Cogeco Cable is out with results on Monday. Jean Coutu Group and Laidlaw International are slated for Tuesday. CI Fund Management reports on Wednesday, and Maax is on the schedule for Thursday.