A reduction in U.S. consumption, increased savings and the adoption of flexible exchange rates in Asia would trigger global economic instability, according to a Conference Board analysis released Tuesday.

“Not only would these actions not have the intended effect but they would add to global instability and further slow an already disturbing slowdown in long-term global growth,” says Gail Fosler, executive vice president and chief economist of New York-based The Conference Board.

In the same analysis, she notes that national borders are becoming less important in analyzing trade and other economic activity, since global markets are increasingly integrated in the same way that national markets are. “Transactions are increasingly based on complex intra- and inter-company relationships,” says Fosler. “Multinational companies are like bees in the spring, spreading technology from country to country.”

Highlighting the difference in the composition of growth drivers around the world, Fosler said consumer spending represents about 70% of GDP in the U.S. But, in emerging markets, investment can be relatively large. In China, fixed investment is almost 45% of GDP.

“Even more striking is how these kinds of domestic market imbalances evolve. During global recessions, U.S. domestic demand shoots up as a share of global domestic demand. In other words, the U.S. is the fundamental counter-cyclical stimulus that helps the rest of the world get back on its feet again. But the stimulus from the U.S. appears to have had little effect on creating sustained domestic demand growth in the rest of the world.”

But the U.S. may not be the only market of “first resort” for long. As Europe expands its global reach, particularly in Asia, and as the euro becomes more of a global currency, Europe’s trade balance will likely erode, says Fosler. “Unless the decade reverses the tendency toward economic instability and slowing global growth, it would appear that it is the structure of the global economy that is unbalanced, not just the U.S. trade accounts,” concludes Fosler.