Led by Newfoundland and Labrador’s spectacular real GDP growth of 9.7% in 2002, all Canadian provinces are expected to post solid growth within the next year, according to The Conference Board of Canada’s Provincial Outlook – Fall 2002.

“All provinces are forecast to achieve economic growth above or near 3% in 2003,” said Peter Hall, associate director, national forecast. “A turnaround in resource-oriented industries and numerous energy developments will stimulate the outlook in many provinces over the near term.”

Newfoundland and Labrador will not only lead all the provinces in 2002, but its 9.7% growth is a full percentage point higher than its previous forecast. It is being driven by an 86% increase in mineral fuels output, primarily from the Hibernia oil field and also from Terra Nova production, as well as a booming construction sector.

Prince Edward Island is harvesting its first good potato crop in three years, which will boost its real GDP growth to 4% in 2002. Nova Scotia will post growth of 3.4% in both 2002 and 2003, led by double-digit growth in construction output. New Brunswick will generate 3% growth in 2002, followed by 3.3% in 2003.

For Quebec, 2002 has been an exceptional year, with a record 100,000 jobs created since December 2001, ten-year highs in housing starts and thriving non-residential construction. Ontario is also having an excellent year, as growth is forecast to reach 3.4% in 2002 and 3.5% in 2003, thanks to strong consumer spending and job creation.

A well-diversified economy in Manitoba will produce growth rates of 3.7% this year and three% in 2003. A second straight year of drought has punished Saskatchewan, affecting both the agriculture sector and secondary industries. Real GDP is forecast to grow only 1.6% this year. Assuming a normal crop in 2003, the economy will rebound with a 4.2% growth rate next year.

Alberta will post a sluggish 2% growth in 2002, but the resurgence in mineral fuels output next year will produce anticipated growth of five% in 2003, tops among Canadian provinces.

British Columbia is recovering from its troubles of 2001, but not as strongly as was expected. The economy is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2002, and by 2.9% in 2003.

The Provincial Outlook is published four times a year and provides a comprehensive package of information on the economic trends affecting each province.